Trends
of 5 Oil Majors
Preamble
Economists and energy analysts are divided as to whether the passing of a peak in global oil production is a present reality or is so far ahead that its occurrence can be discounted.
We are also being persuaded that our near energy requirements can be met by the successful development of shale gas, the reserves of which it is argued are universally spread over the world. The technology of “fracturing” or “fracking” is under rapid deployment in the US, where it has largely replaced the import of LNG.
Because natural gas can be used to sythesise liquid fuels and chemicals it has been assumed that it has a “oil equivalent” and this has been variously evaluated by a comparison of the heating values of oil and gas. Conversion values of between 5,500 and 6,000 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas are assumed to be equivalent to a barrel of crude oil (boe).
In the annual reports of the five major oil companies selected for analysis, all have presented their combined production of oil and gas in barrels of oil equivalent, while presenting their figures for natural gas production in billions of cubic feet or metres (bcf or bcm).
Annual
Reports
Thirty-five annual reports have been studied and a series of tables constructed, with volumetric gas figures presented as billions of barrels of oil equivalents (Gboe) by applying the conversion ratios and by subtraction of billions barrels of oil (Gb) from the totals of barrels of oil equivalents (Gboe).
Using spreadsheet formulae the aggregate
values of the five majors are presented in a sixth table entitled All
ExxonMobil
|
Gb/Gboe |
ExxonMobil |
||||||
|
|
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
2004 |
|
Reserves |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil reserves |
11.673 |
11.651 |
12.006 |
11.074 |
11.568 |
11.229 |
11.651 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
102 |
59 |
206 |
48 |
135 |
54 |
|
|
Gas reserves |
13.136 |
11.334 |
10.982 |
11.377 |
11.26 |
11.151 |
10.06 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
328 |
157 |
35 |
119 |
118 |
275 |
|
|
Total reserves |
24.80 |
22.99 |
22.99 |
22.451 |
22.828 |
22.38 |
21.711 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
208 |
100 |
136 |
76 |
128 |
143 |
|
|
Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil production |
0.883 |
0.87 |
0.879 |
0.953 |
0.976 |
0.917 |
0.935 |
|
Gas production |
0.791 |
0.616 |
0.606 |
0.625 |
0.622 |
0.622 |
0.656 |
|
Total production |
1.674 |
1.486 |
1.485 |
1.578 |
1.598 |
1.539 |
1.591 |
|
Reserves/Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
13.2 |
13.4 |
13.7 |
11.6 |
11.9 |
12.2 |
12.5 |
|
Gas |
16.6 |
18.4 |
18.1 |
18.2 |
18.1 |
17.9 |
15.3 |
|
All |
14.8 |
15.5 |
15.5 |
14.2 |
14.3 |
14.5 |
13.6 |
BP
|
Gb/Gboe |
BP |
||||||
|
|
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
2004 |
|
Reserves |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil reserves |
10.709 |
10.511 |
10.353 |
10.073 |
9.781 |
9.565 |
9.934 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
123 |
117 |
132 |
131 |
124 |
61 |
|
|
Gas reserves |
7.362 |
7.762 |
7.778 |
7.741 |
7.919 |
8.328 |
8.363 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
24 |
97 |
107 |
68 |
23 |
93 |
|
|
Total reserves |
18.07 |
18.27 |
18.13 |
17.8 |
17.7 |
17.89 |
18.3 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
86 |
110 |
124 |
107 |
87 |
72 |
|
|
Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil production |
0.867 |
0.925 |
0.876 |
0.935 |
0.903 |
0.935 |
0.924 |
|
Gas production |
0.528 |
0.533 |
0.523 |
0.553 |
0.53 |
0.53 |
0.535 |
|
Total production |
1.395 |
1.458 |
1.390 |
1.488 |
1.433 |
1.465 |
1.459 |
|
Reserves/Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
12.4 |
11.4 |
11.8 |
10.8 |
10.8 |
10.2 |
10.8 |
|
Gas |
13.9 |
14.6 |
14.9 |
14.0 |
14.9 |
15.7 |
15.6 |
|
All |
13.0 |
12.5 |
13.0 |
12.0 |
12.4 |
12.2 |
12.5 |
Shell
|
Shell |
|||||||
|
|
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
2004 |
|
Reserves |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil reserves |
6.146 |
5.687 |
3.431 |
3.789 |
4.189 |
4.636 |
4.888 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
178 |
491 |
42 |
42 |
37 |
65 |
|
|
Gas reserves |
8.127 |
8.445 |
7.472 |
8.141 |
7.611 |
6.83 |
6.994 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
49 |
271 |
-24 |
203 |
240 |
68 |
|
|
Total reserves |
14.273 |
14.132 |
10.903 |
11.920 |
11.800 |
11.466 |
11.882 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
112 |
382 |
12 |
110 |
126 |
67 |
|
|
Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil production |
0.591 |
0.577 |
0.619 |
0.693 |
0.711 |
0.729 |
0.793 |
|
Gas production |
0.619 |
0.57 |
0.541 |
0.517 |
0.557 |
0.52 |
0.554 |
|
Total production |
1.210 |
1.147 |
1.160 |
1.210 |
1.268 |
1.249 |
1.347 |
|
Reserves/Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
10.4 |
9.9 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.9 |
6.4 |
6.2 |
|
Gas |
13.1 |
14.8 |
13.8 |
15.7 |
13.7 |
13.1 |
12.6 |
|
All |
11.8 |
12.3 |
9.4 |
9.9 |
9.3 |
9.2 |
8.8 |
Total
|
Gb/Gboe |
Total |
||||||
|
|
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
2004 |
|
Reserves |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil reserves |
5.987 |
5.689 |
5.695 |
5.778 |
6.47 |
6.59 |
7.003 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
161 |
99 |
84 |
-26 |
78 |
31 |
|
|
Gas reserves |
4.708 |
4.794 |
4.763 |
4.671 |
4.649 |
4.514 |
4.145 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
77 |
109 |
128 |
107 |
143 |
216 |
|
|
Total reserves |
10.695 |
10.483 |
10.458 |
10.449 |
11.12 |
11.106 |
11.148 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
124 |
103 |
101 |
23 |
102 |
95 |
|
|
Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil production |
0.489 |
0.504 |
0.531 |
0.551 |
0.550 |
0.592 |
0.619 |
|
Gas production |
0.379 |
0.328 |
0.324 |
0.322 |
0.310 |
0.318 |
0.325 |
|
Total production |
0.868 |
0.832 |
0.855 |
0.873 |
0.860 |
0.908 |
0.944 |
|
Reserves/Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
12.2 |
11.3 |
10.7 |
10.5 |
11.8 |
11.1 |
11.3 |
|
Gas |
12.4 |
14.6 |
14.7 |
14.5 |
15.0 |
14.2 |
12.8 |
|
All |
12.3 |
12.6 |
12.2 |
12.0 |
12.9 |
12.2 |
11.8 |
Chevron
|
Gb/Gboe |
Chevron |
||||||
|
|
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
2004 |
|
Reserves |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil reserves |
6.503 |
6.973 |
7.350 |
7.087 |
7.806 |
8.000 |
7.973 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
33 |
44 |
144 |
-12 |
69 |
104 |
|
|
Gas reserves |
4.040 |
4.340 |
3.846 |
3.690 |
3.814 |
3.906 |
3.279 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
2 |
263 |
150 |
61 |
73 |
302 |
|
|
Total reserves |
10.54 |
11.31 |
11.20 |
10.777 |
11.62 |
11.906 |
11.252 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
24 |
112 |
146 |
12 |
71 |
171 |
|
|
Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil production |
0.702 |
0.674 |
0.602 |
0.641 |
0.632 |
0.609 |
0.624 |
|
Gas production |
0.307 |
0.303 |
0.312 |
0.315 |
0.341 |
0.310 |
0.292 |
|
Total production |
1.009 |
0.977 |
0.914 |
0.956 |
0.973 |
0.919 |
0.916 |
|
Reserves/Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
9.3 |
10.3 |
12.2 |
11.1 |
12.3 |
13.1 |
12.8 |
|
Gas |
13.2 |
14.3 |
12.3 |
11.7 |
11.2 |
12.6 |
11.2 |
|
All |
10.4 |
11.6 |
12.2 |
11.3 |
11.9 |
13.0 |
12.3 |
All
|
Gb/Gboe |
All |
||||||
|
|
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
2004 |
|
Reserves |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil reserves |
41.018 |
40.511 |
38.835 |
37.801 |
39.815 |
40.022 |
41.449 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
114 |
147 |
129 |
47 |
95 |
62 |
|
|
Gas reserves |
37.373 |
36.675 |
34.841 |
35.869 |
35.125 |
34.729 |
32.841 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
127 |
178 |
55 |
133 |
117 |
182 |
|
|
Total reserves |
78.382 |
77.186 |
73.673 |
73.670 |
74.940 |
74.751 |
74.29 |
|
Replacement ratio % |
119 |
160 |
100 |
79 |
103 |
108 |
|
|
Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil production |
3.5315 |
3.550 |
3.507 |
3.775 |
3.775 |
3.782 |
3.895 |
|
Gas production |
2.624 |
2.350 |
2.306 |
2.278 |
2.307 |
2.300 |
2.362 |
|
Total production |
6.156 |
5.900 |
5.804 |
6.053 |
6.081 |
6.082 |
6.257 |
|
Reserves/Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
11.6 |
11.4 |
11.1 |
10.0 |
10.5 |
10.6 |
10.6 |
|
Gas |
14.2 |
15.6 |
15.1 |
15.7 |
15.2 |
15.1 |
13.9 |
|
All |
12.7 |
13.1 |
12.7 |
12.2 |
12.3 |
12.3 |
11.9 |
From
this aggregation of the five results it is evident that their combined crude oil
production has declined from Gb
3.895 in 2004 to Gb 3.532 in 2010, a fall of 9%.
Their
combined natural gas production has risen from Gboe 2.362 in 2004 to Gboe 2.624
in 2010, a rise of 11%.
This
has meant that their total production in Gboe has remained virtually even over
the seven years.
Oil
equivalents
The
attribution of comparative heating values to evaluate an oil equivalent of
natural gas is only valid when the oil and gas are used for heating.
If
the natural gas is transported as LNG, then there is a heating value penalty of
15% or so, depending on the energy used for cleaning up the gas prior to
liquefaction, the liquefaction and transportation and eventual regasification
and its transmission.
If
the natural gas is used to synthesise liquid fuels, then there is a heating
value penalty of around 50%.
Some
oil production figures include bitumen derived from tarsands. As there is a 30%
energy loss in its conversion to synthetic crude oil (SCO), there is a need for
its conventional oil equivalent to be discounted.
As
gas takes more of a proportion of the oil equivalent production claimed by the
majors and the proportion of SCO increases, so the total barrels of oil
equivalent should be marked down according to the end use of the gas and the
contribution of bitumen in the figures.
Company
peaks
Exxon Mobil had its company oil peak
in 2006, BP its in 2007, Shell before 2004, Total before 2004, while Chevron not
yet.
Conclusions
The
presentation of annual reports in regard to oil and gas production and their
overall amounts claimed needs to be subjected to regulatory scrutiny. The
various end uses and processes involved should be taken into account. The
presented figures for natural gas oil equivalents should be downgraded accordingly.
It
can also be noted that the five oil majors selected for examination are slowly
progressing to gas majors.
John
Busby 2 January 2012